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Union Leader: Economist sees slow job growth
11-17-2011 (PDF Version)Economist sees slow job growth through next year
Stagnant economic and job growth will linger through next year, Dennis Delay, New Hampshire forecast manager for the The New England Economic Partnership, said Thursday.
By DENIS PAISTE
New Hampshire Union Leader
MANCHESTER - Stagnant economic and job growth will linger through next year, Dennis Delay, New Hampshire forecast manager for the The New England Economic Partnership, said Thursday.
“This is an economy in danger of stalling to a point where the risks of recession, probably not for this year but into next year, have been elevated in New Hampshire,” Delay said in a telephone conference with reporters.
Ross Gittell, the partnership’s vice president and New England region forecast manager, said overall economic growth needs to hit 3 percent to see a significant decline in unemployment.
“Not until really 2013 are we going to see 3 percent in overall economic growth, and 1 percent in employment regionally to see overall unemployment come down,” Gittell said.
Both Delay and Gittell will join the New England Economic Partnership’s 2011 Fall Economic Outlook Conference Friday morning at UNH-Manchester.
New Hampshire’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.3 percent for October 2011, compared to 9 percent nationally.
“Job creation slowed in September 2011, to about 5,000 jobs per year, half the pace seen in the months of June through August of 2011,” Delay said. “Any acceleration in private-sector job creation looks to be partially offset by public sector job losses.”
Delay is also an economist with the N.H. Center for Public Policy Studies.
Delay forecasts New Hampshire job growth of 1.2 percent this year, dropping to 0.8 percent in 2012, before growing 1.3 percent in 2013, 1.8 percent in 2014 and 2.4 percent in 2015.
“The New England and New Hampshire outlook is strongly affected by factors beyond our control including the European debt crises,” Gittell said. Weak consumer confidence is another such factor, he said.
Gittell is also James R. Carter Professor of Management at the University of New Hampshire.